Syria’s dictator Bashir al-Assad is offering amnesty to his opposition.

How conciliatory that sounds. But the question is rather whether the Syrian population is willing to give him amnesty after he has stood by and let 5,500 dissidents be killed.

His own claim to conciliation has long been documented as a blatant lie. Some 120 civilians were killed at the weekend, with the Arab League deciding to abandon its observer mission in Syria. The League has simply lost all confidence in Assad.

Developments in Syria are therefore rapidly beginning to resemble that of Libya last spring. The brutality of the dictatorship is intensifying. It is losing control of an increasing number of cities - even suburbs of the capital Damascus. An armed insurrection is spreading. The opposition is asking for international protection. The Arab League is demanding the demise of the dictator.

A single Arab government - in Qatar – is recommending international military intervention to save the population from the regime’s bloodbath. Two Western nations – France and Turkey – are discussing the option of establishing a protection zone in Syrian border areas.

Is the next move the United Nations asking the Arab League or NATO to protect the civilian population?

Such a proposal is not unthinkable. But it would be better if both the Arab League and the West – and the United Nations if Russia and China show responsibility – were to support the Syrian opposition rather than introducing a military option.

But if demands for military intervention are to be avoided, the international community must do more to strengthen the Syrian opposition in order that it is able to replace Assad itself.

There is every indication that an increasing number within the Syrian establishment can be indicted at the International Court of Justice. Financial sanctions against key figures in the Assad regime can and should be intensified.

And if there is to be any hope of avoiding a civil war in the country, the fragmented Syrian opposition must be helped to unite and formulate a democratic and multi-cultural alternative to the dictatorship.

That, too, is a lesson from Libya where the Transitional Council and militias who ousted Gaddafi with NATO’s help are currently embroiled in violence and political divisions.

The Syrian opposition – both the political and armed wings – need help and inspiration to prevent the country from dissolution when, as soon as is possible, the curtains are drawn on the Damascus dictatorship.

aj

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