The latest Megafon poll for TV2 and Politiken delivers a thrashing to the governing Social Democratic Party and the troubled opposition Conservative Party, handing them some of their worst ever poll results.

Taken as the controversy over the congestion charge toll ring was at its height, the poll shaves 2.4 per cent off the Social Democratic following compared with last month, and 4.6 per cent compared to the election result, leaving the prime minister’s party at 20.2 per cent.

At the same time, the Conservative Party, whose fortunes have continually dropped over the past year or so, is now down at 3.2 per cent, its lowest ever Megafon rating and slowly closing in on the two per cent electoral threshold. The party garnered 4.9 per cent in last September’s election – already a catastrophic following for the former government party.

A  troubled Conservative Party down on 3.2 per cent in today's Megafon poll. Archive.

“This is just not good enough,” says Conservative Political Spokeswoman and former Minister for Social Affairs Benedikte Kiær, who adds that the party chairmanship is not being questioned.

“We have almost just changed chairmen, so you don’t immediately begin to think that that is a solution. We have a chairman: Lars Barfoed,” Kiær says.

Electoral exodus
For the Social Democrats, the poll shows a following that has not been lower since 1998, when then Social Democratic Prime Minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen went back on a promise regarding the early retirement system.

The latest Megafon poll was collected during the first three days of this week while controversy surrounding the now dropped toll ring around Copenhagen was at its height, but Prof. Rune Stubager of Aarhus University says the continuing drop in electoral favour cannot solely be ascribed to that issue.

“The chaos (Ed: surrounding the toll ring) can be the reason for losses compared to last month. But most of it is probably the general discussion on broken promises,” Stubager says.

Social Democratic Political Spokesman Magnus Heunicke says he hopes that with the toll ring issue now buried, the party will be able to move on.

“The process has not been pretty, but I think we now have a good solution which strengthens public transport… We have a major communication and concrete task in creating jobs and managing the economy. But it is a long haul and the polls will be going up and down,” Heunicke says.

Liberals on upward curve
While the Social Democrats move down the ladder in the poll to 20.2 per cent, the Liberals of former Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen have notched up yet another couple of rungs, landing on 34.3 per cent.

“The whole toll ring issue is a clear example that they have completely ignored the everyday life of families in the capital region and Zealand. They do not need an extra bill in order to do their jobs and pick up their children on time,” says Liberal Political Spokeswoman Ellen Trane Nørby.

Stubager says that the result of the poll may now make it more difficult for the government to reach the broad agreements in negotiations on tax and labour reforms that begin next week, and in which the government has said it wants the Liberals to take part.

“It will probably mean that they will be more difficult to deal with. This sort of poll will hardly make the Liberals feel that they had better reach agreement in order to have influence. On the contrary it will probably make them more likely to be intransigent,” Stubager says.

SocLibs and SocPpl up
While the Social Democrats lick their wounds as a result of the poll, the other two government parties appear to be gaining terrain. The poll sees the Social Liberal Party of Economy Minister Margrethe Vestager at 10 per cent, 0.5 percentage points up on its election result and 0.2 per cent up on last month’s poll.

The Socialist People’s Party of Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal also appears to be regaining some of its losses, landing on 8.1 per cent – still almost one percentage point down on the election result, but 0.7 percentage points up on last month’s figures.

The Red Greens, who support the centre-left government, are on a stable 7.2 per cent, up on their election result of 6.7 per cent and only marginally down on last month’s poll.

Similarly, the Danish People’s Party is relatively stable, hovering around 12 per cent.

The Liberal Alliance at 4.6 per cent is down on both its election result and last month’s figures.

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