At the NATO summit in Chicago on Sunday, the alliance’s leaders are to decide the tempo and organisation of the withdrawal of some 130,000 foreign troops from Afghanistan. Central to the decision-making process is the rate at which the Afghan security forces are able to contain the Taleban.

As a prelude to the NATO summit, NATO’s Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen tells Politiken that in 2½ years, the Afghan security forces will have to, and can, manage the war.

“We must say that from January 1, 2015, the active battle responsibility will be transferred to the Afghans themselves. We are only there as support,” Fogh Rasmussen tells Politiken.

Although international troops will still be in Afghanistan after that date, there will be fewer of them and they will only be there in a training capacity. The ISAF international force will cease to exist.

“ISAF stops and moves onto a training mission. That will be confirmed at the NATO meeting. There will still be soldiers there but in a support function and a lot fewer of them,” Fogh says.

Asked if there would still be battle troops in Afghanistan, Fogh Rasmussen says: “That depends on what you mean by battle troops. There is general agreement that there must be a capacity there to defend our training mission – a support function to protect them.”

Fogh Rasmussen says he hopes to see some Danish troops remaining in the country. “I feel it is in Denmark’s interest to be there and be part of making sure that the Afghan security forces can take full responsibility. The idea is that the Afghans themselves must take responsibility for their own country.”

With a current force of some 350,000, Fogh Rasmussen sees - in the long term – the Afghan forces being able to cut back. “ The better the security situation, and the stronger the Afghan capacity is, the fewer men are necessary,” Fogh Rasmussen says.

Current planning is that the international community will be supporting the Afghan military to the tune of some USD4billion per year.

“That is very important. In Chicago we will be discussing how NATO and the ISAF countries can pay for their fair share of the overall bill. But it is a duty for the entire international community. I also expect countries outside NATO and ISAF to contribute,” the secretary-general says.

“I would find it natural if for example the Gulf states could contribute. A stable Afghanistan is also in their interests. I know that both the Chinese and Russians are interested in stability in Afghanistan. That should also lead to a conclusion that they could contribute,” he adds.

Fogh Rasmussen says that while could be a risk that the country could revert to chaos when international troops leave; if that happened, the situation would have to be addressed at that time.

“That is currently a hypothetical question because there is actually progress in the security situation. I accept that we have seen some spectacular attacks in which the Taleban has managed to draw media headlines. But you should also notice that these were in reality operations that failed. The Afghan security troops were able to beat back the attackers with a minimum of support from the international forces. That illustrates that the Afghan forces are getting better and better at shouldering the full responsibility for their security themselves”.

“I was recently out watching the Afghan Special operate. Quality is rapidly improving. So I believe they will be able to take full responsibility at the end of 2014 – and secure (the country) against a reversal. But if that happens, the international community must address the issue,” Fogh Rasmussen says.

Asked if a reversal would see NATO returning to Afghanistan, Fogh Rasmussen says NATO is following the plan that has been laid.

“The ISAF operation stops at the end of 2014 and we move over to a support function. So you could say that NATO is still there, but rather in a support function,” Fogh Rasmussen says, adding that Afghanistan will not be left alone.

“We will not repeat previous mistakes by just leaving Afghanistan to itself and leaving a security vacuum. When the ISAF operation ends, the Afghans will have a strong national security force that the international community will be helping to fund. That is the difference,” he says.

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