Exit polls are being given the credit for changing what seemed likely to be a ‘No’ in Sunday’s referendum on royal succession to a ‘Yes’.

“The prospect of the amendment failing at referendum caused more people to vote,” says Århus University Electoral Researcher Prof. Jørgen Elklit.

Drama
The Megafon polling institute provided exit polls for TV2 and Politiken each hour from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. when polling stations closed. At the same time, several party leaders, Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen and former Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen appealed to voters to go to the polls.

“A dramatic atmosphere was created surrounding the referendum that made it extremely exciting as to how the vote would end up. That made more people go to the polls,” says Megafon Director Asger H. Nielsen. He says that the extensive coverage of the exit polls made some five percent more people turn out than otherwise would have done so.

Aalborg University Electoral Researcher Johannes Andersen tells Politiken that exit polls can move focus from the political content of an issue to the vote itself.

“This Sunday can certainly be used as an example of how opinion polls and exit polls can change electoral behaviour. It seems that five percent of the electorate changed its behavior in the final hours. They would not have voted unless they had been told that there were not enough votes,” Andersen says.

Under the Danish Constitution at least 40 percent of the entire electorate had to vote in favour in the referendum in order for the amendment to the laws on succession to be passed. The amendment provides for absolute primogeniture – the right of the monarch’s first-born to ascend the throne irrespective of gender.

In the referendum, 45.1 percent of the entire electorate voted in favour of the amendment.

The process
“It also shows that when you carry out polls, you move the electorate’s interest from the political content of an issue to the process itself. If the five percent had been interested in the issue of an amendment to the laws on succession, then they would have gone to the polls. But when the message about the actual process and difficulties in getting a majority hit the media, the electorate was mobilised,” says Andersen.

Exit polls
The increased turnout meant that the amendment passed, and although it was supported by the Social Democratic Party, the party is generally against exit polls.

“We want to protect democracy against all unseemly influence on election day. Opinion polls should never be allowed to determine the result of an election. As a result we want to ensure calm on election day so that on the day opinion and exit polls are not published before polling stations close,” says Social Democratic Spokeswoman Lene Hansen.

The governing Liberal and Conservative parties disagree.

“If we ban exit polls we are limiting free speech. The alternative is just that the big parties do them themselves. In this way we at least ensure that the smaller parties also have access to them,” says Liberal Political Spokesman Peter Christensen.

“It’s just entertainment that helps those who are interested to get through election day,” says Conservative Political Spokeswoman Henriette Kjær.