Danish and international economists are saying that the downturn in the global economy seems to be over. It is the first time that so many economists concur that surprisingly positive indicators over the summer indicate an exit in sight from the mine-shaft of recession.

Nonetheless, they warn that we remain at the bottom of the shaft and there is still a long and dangerous road to the surface.

Over-pessimistic
“There has been a tendency to be overly pessimistic. Across the board there seems to be a self-reinforcing process under way,” says Danske Bank Senior Analyst Peter Possing Andersen who agrees with the Goldman Sachs investment bank.

“Global growth has stabilised in the past couple of months. Most stress targets in the financial system are now back at levels prior to the crisis and stock markets have risen strongly since March,” Goldman Sachs says in a new analysis of the global economy.

Growth on the up and up
Several economic speedometers are back in positive territory – or at least going in the right direction. Growth is now positive in Asia, with the United States expected to follow suit this month and with the Eurozone expected to follow in a couple of months.

“The downturn seems to have stopped in the Eurozone,” says Nordea Chief Economist Anders Matzen.

IMF, OECD
The most recent developments caused the International Monetary Fund and the OECD - two most important international economic organisations – to adjust their economic forecasts.

“The global economy is beginning to haul itself out of the worst post-war recession, but re-establishment is expected to be slow,” the IMF says.

Long, winding road
Most economists are forecasting a recovery ahead – but it will be weak, slow and can stop abruptly. For Denmark, which has one of the worst housing bubbles in Europe, there is less optimism.

“As far as Denmark is concerned, there’s not much to be optimistic about,” says Wise Man Hans Jørgen Whitta-Jacobsen.