It may be that the Russian frigate that fired at one of the Danish Armed Forces’ helicopters off Gedser on Monday used only a flare. But it sends a signal: of a hybrid war that is escalating, increasing the risk that ’something’ spins out of control.
Initially, the Defense Ministry issued only this statement on Monday at 11:02 p.m.:
»The Russian frigate fired two flares at the helicopter. One of the flares passed at a short distance from the helicopter«.
What matters, however, is that this is the first time we’ve heard of anything like it. And it fits a pattern showing that the Putin regime has recently become increasingly willing to take risks in its hybrid threats against Europe.
Escalation
In August, Germany’s security services found two traces of suspected Russian drones with traces of explosives at Leipzig/Halle Airport in eastern Germany. One was close to a Ukrainian military transport aircraft. The German government pointed directly to Russia and responded by shutting down a Russian cultural center in Berlin and Russia’s consulate general in Bonn.
On September 2, the Danish Security and Intelligence Service told the newspaper Berlingske that Danish authorities have also uncovered specific Russian plans for sabotage operations against companies in Denmark.
This spring, Russia’s Defense Ministry published lists of European companies that cooperate with the Ukrainian military. One pointed to an address in northern Jutland where the drone company Skywatch is based. Whether that is connected to the warning in September is unclear.
The escalation of hybrid threats and actions comes at a time when Ukraine is increasingly straining Russia’s economy and daily life with drone attacks deep inside the country.
Russia has not yet managed to build up a defense against these attacks and is therefore trying to change the dynamic in other ways: by going after the allies supporting Ukraine – above all Germany, by far the most prominent ally on display, but also a country like Denmark, which stands out for its relatively large military support.
Denmark has also moved onto Russia’s radar in other ways. The country’s Foreign Ministry recently reacted sharply to Politiken’s revelation of militarized instruction for Russian youths living in Denmark.
A difficult balancing act for NATO
NATO countries are now trying to gradually step up their responses without further escalation that increases the risk of mistakes: wars in world history have begun through errors before.
So they are turning up the volume by publicizing the Russian actions and naming names. But they are keeping responses at a diplomatic level to keep the temperature as low as possible.
But it does not change the fact that this is the start of a new era – and that NATO is stuck with an explosive headache: It can be neither so soft that Russia can escalate with impunity, nor so hard that it invites escalation.
It is unlikely to be the last time this dilemma presents itself: The more pressure Putin’s regime comes under, the greater its appetite for risk is likely to become.
read next
