So far, Iceland has lived its own quiet life out in the North Atlantic, while other small countries like Montenegro, Albania, and Moldova have eagerly knocked on the EU’s door in hopes of one day becoming members.
That may change.
The Icelandic government has decided that Icelanders will likely have a referendum next year, and at the latest by 2027. Not on whether Iceland should become a member of the EU, but on whether the country should restart the membership negotiations that Iceland itself halted back in 2013.
If Icelanders say yes, it is not inconceivable that Iceland could be a member of the EU in just a few years. The country’s strongly pro-European foreign minister, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, is optimistic.
»I would say the public support for recommencing the negotiations is there«, she said earlier this year to the news outlet Politico. She is also the leader of the liberal party Reformpartiet.
National identity crucial
Perhaps she is too optimistic.
Icelanders are a proud people who do not easily take orders. Therefore, it is too early to discount a yes, emphasizes Eiríkur Bergmann, a professor of politics at Bifröst University, a bit north of the capital Reykjavik. He points out that recent years’ opinion polls have been very fluctuating, with some showing a majority for EU membership, while others have shown the opposite.
»If I were to draw a conclusion from my own research, it ultimately revolves around national identity more than anything else. Icelanders have different views on where it is best for Iceland to position itself in relation to the rest of the world. Some believe that for economic reasons, it would be advantageous to have full access to the EU’s internal market. For others, the important thing is that Iceland has fought for its independence throughout history,« he says.
Back in 2009, the then government decided to apply for EU membership. This happened in the wake of the financial crisis that had hit Iceland and the rest of Europe the previous year but was particularly severe in Iceland. Three of the country’s major banks collapsed. EU supporters argued that the EU could provide some financial stability. But internally, the government was divided, and in 2013, Iceland put its application on hold.
Fishing is crucial
Iceland largely lives off its fishing industry, and over the years, the reluctance to be subjected to the EU’s common fisheries policy has been one of the crucial arguments among EU skeptics. They do not want to see, among other things, Danish and Dutch fishing boats in the waters where Icelandic fishermen have so far had exclusive rights to fish. Additionally, Iceland still allows whaling, which the EU opposes.
But now Iceland faces a world where old alliances are being broken and political unpredictability has become a fundamental condition. This has raised the discussion of whether Iceland can afford to remain outside the EU, which is not a particularly Icelandic phenomenon. The same discussion has also begun to sprout in Greenland and Norway, which likewise remain outside the EU.
Security-wise, Iceland has always been vulnerable. Iceland is the only NATO member that does not have its own military. Instead, it has largely been the USA that has provided military protection for Iceland. But with Donald Trump in the White House, the question is whether that guarantee will remain. Trump’s interest in Europe is clearly limited, and he has insisted that individual NATO countries must pay the bill for their defense.
Trade-wise, Iceland is also exposed. Iceland fears becoming a victim of Donald Trump’s tariffs, and Icelandic EU supporters argue that Iceland would be more sheltered if the country were a member of the EU.
At the same time, Iceland feels the consequences of being outside the EU because the country is cut off from trading with the EU in several areas. This has begun to hurt a small economy and has led to tensions between Iceland and the EU.
Agreement on the way
Nevertheless, the government is expected to sign a security and defense agreement with the EU soon.
»In this special geopolitical environment, what is best for the Icelandic interest is the EU«, said Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, according to the media outlet Euractiv last month at an event where the Danish Minister for European Affairs, Marie Bjerre (Venstre, V), was also present.
Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir has repeatedly expressed that it is important for Iceland not to rely solely on NATO. When she talks about Iceland being exposed, it is not in the sense that the country is in danger of being attacked by Russia or another foreign power. It is more about Iceland, as a small country, having so far benefited from a rules-based world order, and that order is now beginning to crack.
Therefore, according to Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, Iceland needs to strengthen its ties with the EU. However, she risks that the meeting with voters could be tough.
Even if there is a majority to start membership negotiations with the EU, it does not mean that there will also be a majority to join the EU the day the negotiations are concluded. Especially not if the membership conditions are too harsh and damage Icelandic national pride.
