Imagine this: In 71 years, Denmark’s population will reach a historic milestone.
The number of immigrants and their descendants will surpass the number of citizens of Danish origin by the year 2096.
Whether this will happen is uncertain. But if it does, it won’t be due to massive future waves of refugees or significant emigration of the current population.
It will simply be the natural course of events in the coming years, if current birth rates and immigration levels continue.
This is the conclusion of a demographic projection conducted by one of the country’s leading experts in population development for Politiken.
If the current low fertility rate persists, the existing population will shrink significantly over the coming decades. If the substantial influx of foreign labor continues, the number of immigrants and their descendants will rise.
In 2096, there will be 2,623,842 citizens of Danish origin in Denmark and 2,662,204 immigrants and descendants; assuming both birth rates and immigration rates remain exactly as they are now.
»The very low fertility rate and the fairly substantial labor immigration will have a huge impact on our society,« says Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, professor of epidemiology and demography at the University of Southern Denmark, who conducted the projection.
Population projections are not facts.
For example, there is far from agreement on whether fertility will continue at its current low level. Today, the fertility rate is 1.47 per woman. However, the latest population projection from Statistics Denmark expects fertility to rise to 1.7 children per woman in the coming years. This is based on the expectation that many who have not yet had children will do so later in life.
Others argue that the fertility rate in Denmark could fall even lower in the coming years – a trend seen in other European countries where more people are choosing not to have children.
No one knows how labor immigration will develop in the coming decades, and there are several other important reservations to the population projection.
But Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen can provide us with a picture of how Denmark’s population will develop under the assumption that virtually everything continues as it is now.
»I am not trying to scare the population or fuel specific political agendas with my projection – just trying to open people’s eyes to the future we are facing when we have so few children,« he says.
Key assumptions
In his projection, Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen assumes that the current average life expectancy rises equally for both citizens of Danish origin and immigrants and their descendants.
The current low fertility rates are maintained. This means that people of Danish origin will continue to have 1.5 children per woman every year in the coming years.
The current fertility rate for immigrants and descendants is even lower, at 1.3 children per woman. This rate is also maintained in the calculation.
The increase in the number of immigrants and descendants is not due to them having more children than people of Danish origin in the calculation – quite the opposite. Immigrants and their descendants currently have fewer children than citizens of Danish origin.
The projection shows that the group of immigrants and descendants will exceed the group of Danish origin by 2096 because labor immigration is maintained at its current level.
The projection uses an average of the last five years’ net immigration, i.e., immigration minus emigration – which stands at 29,278 people annually.
Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen points out an important caveat to the figures: in his projection, all children of immigrants are considered descendants.
The projection is based on the current population composition from Statistics Denmark. Today, all children of immigrants are counted as descendants – unless an immigrant has a child with a citizen of Danish origin, then the child is counted as Danish.
No one knows who will have children with whom in the future, and the professor has therefore assumed in his projection that all children of immigrants remain descendants.
Population change has been underway for years
It may sound wild that Denmark’s population could change so radically in such a short time, as the projection shows. But in reality, this development has been ongoing for years, the professor points out.
»When we have heard for many years that the Danish population is increasing, it is because the low fertility is supplemented by a rather large net immigration, which gives a plus on the population account. Without immigration, we would have significantly fewer inhabitants in Denmark year by year,« says Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen.
The projection is already prompting reactions from politicians at Christiansborg – in very different ways.
Mohammad Rona, political spokesperson for the ruling party Moderaterne, calls the declining fertility of Danes »worrying,« particularly because the cause is unknown. He also emphasizes that »international colleagues« are crucial to the welfare state.
International employees contributed DKK 361 billion, or 12 percent of the total gross domestic product, in 2024.
»They are not just necessary; they are a benefit both to our community and to the Danish economy,« says Mohammad Rona, continuing:
»The success of Danish companies in attracting international employees is a key reason for our very robust economy.«
But Mohammad Rona also acknowledges that the decline in citizens of Danish origin, which all credible projections point to, will create »a fundamental change in our society.«
Moderaterne strongly warn against making labor immigration a problem or a threat when they »are actually a huge asset.«
Dansk Folkeparti sees the projection’s conclusion very differently.
»It is deeply alarming if Danes risk being a minority in their own country by 2096,« says Mikkel Bjørn, immigration and integration spokesperson for Dansk Folkeparti.
»It fundamentally confirms that we are witnessing a population replacement that I have warned about for many years. It is a warning about the future if we continue with massive labor immigration from culturally foreign countries. The consequence will be that we gradually lose the Denmark we know and love,« he says.
People from non-Western countries have recently made up an unusually large share of immigration. In the first half of 2024, people from non-Western countries accounted for 76 percent of net immigration, the largest share since at least 2008, according to an analysis by the business organization SMVdanmark.
Ukrainians are clearly the largest group of non-Western immigrants, while the next non-Western countries on the list are India and Iran when looking at net immigration back to the beginning of 2022.
Today, non-Western immigrants and their descendants make up 10.3 percent of Denmark’s total population, while by 2096 they will make up 28.0 percent if the projection becomes reality.
Mikkel Bjørn calls it a result of »political irresponsibility.« Instead of importing labor from cultures that do not share »our values,« Denmark should restructure its own labor market. He believes that tens of thousands of workers can be freed up by streamlining the administration at the national, regional, and local levels.
»The labor need should be solved in Denmark – not by changing Denmark forever,« he says.
Fertility may decline further
Last year, the debate was sparked by what would happen to the current population if the fertility rate continues as it is now. The professor conducted a highly discussed population projection for Politiken last year.
It showed that by the year 2100, there would only be 2.54 million inhabitants left in Denmark – if one imagines closing the borders to immigration for all time and life expectancy remains as it is now. Since that calculation, the fertility rate has fallen further.
How fertility will develop in the future is unknown. While Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen leans towards it possibly falling further, there are also research-based arguments for the opposite.
Research professor Peter Fallesen from the Rockwool Foundation has investigated family demography for years. He sees it as most likely that fertility will rise slightly again, as Statistics Denmark’s latest projection also assumes.
He points out that part of the current decline in fertility is due to women with lengthy education postponing having children. And as more and more women pursue long education, this effect is amplified.
»They might end up delaying childbirth until later, which could eventually increase the birth rate for their generation,« says Peter Fallesen.
»Therefore, it is problematic to project based on the current birth rate, as it does not account for people having children later in life. In my view, it is more realistic to project that fertility will rise slightly again.«
If fertility rises to 1.7, the majority in Denmark will not have Danish origins by 2105.
But there are nearby examples where fertility rates are dropping. This is happening in Finland, and research offers a clear explanation for it, says Fallesen:
»They simply don’t want children; it’s as straightforward as that. Studies clearly show that their preferences have significantly changed on this matter.«
In Norway, fertility has also fallen more than in Denmark, though without a clear explanation similar to Finland’s.
»So if something similar happens in Denmark, fertility could indeed decline further. The reason I don’t see this as the most likely scenario is that we don’t observe the same indicators here as in those countries,« says Peter Fallesen.
Immigration
In recent years, right-wing factions in several Western countries have referred to this trend as ’the great replacement.’
The theory suggests that the white European population is slowly being replaced by non-Europeans, particularly from Muslim countries in Africa and the Middle East. According to the theory, this happens through massive immigration from specific countries and a high birth rate among these new citizens, combined with historically low European fertility rates.
However, this is not the development that Professor Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen’s projection shows, he emphasizes.
Certainly, the proportion of non-Western immigrants is high these days, as Politiken recently reported. But while there used to be many from North Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, and Turkey who were reunited with families in Denmark and rarely found employment, today’s major immigration is characterized by people from Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Iran, India, and Nepal coming to work.
»Everything depends on whether immigrants and their descendants integrate into society, have jobs, learn Danish. If their children learn Danish and integrate, aren’t they quite close to being very Danish? I think so. But of course, this will affect our society, that’s clear,« says Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen.
Peter Fallesen points out that it is important to note that all children of immigrants in Lindahl-Jacobsen’s projection count as descendants – but many of them will likely have children with a partner of Danish origin, as has also happened in recent years. Thus, many immigrants’ children will actually be counted as Danish and not solely as descendants.
»Many of us, myself included, have a foreign grandparent or great-grandparent, without being considered descendants of immigrants,« says Peter Fallesen.
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