Which Donald Trump would show up?
That question had kept Danish diplomats and ministers awake at night as they prepared to sign, on Tuesday, the sweeping agreement meant to determine the Kongdom’s and Greenland’s future.
Would it be a new Zelensky moment, like the one when he berated the Ukrainian president in front running cameras in the White House?
Which Trump would step out from behind the curtain and sit down at the small table where the three heads of government were to sign?
Everyone felt a sense of relief when it turned out to be nice Donald Trump. But also a taciturn Trump. A polite man who held the chair for Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, as she sat down.
A man who spoke about how the Danes were amazing and how the whole process had been lovely.
The signing of the agreement marks a provisional full stop to the yearslong conflict among the United States, Denmark and Greenland. In recent years, Trump has repeatedly demanded ownership and control of Greenland and for a long time refused to rule out a military takeover of the world’s largest island, which he has previously compared to a »real estate deal«.
Mikkel Runge Olesen, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies, assesses that the deal improves American terms in Greenland, but only to a limited extent.
»On paper, it’s a more favorable agreement for the United States. But I also don’t think it’s more than a moderate improvement for the Americans«, he says.
Marc Jacobsen, an associate professor at the Royal Danish Defence College’s Institute for Strategy and War Studies, stresses that the agreement respects Denmark’s and Greenland’s ‘red lines.’
»I was curious whether we’d see some kind of Cyprus model, where you’d ceded sovereignty over these places where the bases are located. I don’t see that here. So there’s no ceding of sovereignty or anything like that. I see it as an extension of the 1951 agreement«, he says.
New tone
Already in his speech to the U.N. General Assembly earlier in the day, Donald Trump’s tone toward Denmark and Greenland had shifted.
Trump called the process with Denmark and Greenland »an amazing experience«.
»We’ve really formed a bond in doing it«, he said from the lectern.
There, he framed the agreement as a clear step forward for the United States.
»No U.S. adversary will ever be permitted to establish a military presence in Greenland anymore, or make sensitive investments there, without our express written approvall«, he said.
Under the agreement, the United States is permitted to establish new military bases in Narsarsuaq in southern Greenland and at Mestersvig on the east coast. At the same time, the United States may expand its activities at the Pituffik base in northern Greenland.
»We will immediately begin the process of developing a large military presence in the appropriate locations. We will be building two very major military bases«, Trump told the General Assembly.
Narsarsuaq was the United States’ largest base in Greenland, with several thousand troops stationed there during World War II. Sixty-eight years after the U.S. military left the base, the United States now appears poised to return to the site that until recently served as the civilian transportation hub for travel to southern Greenland.
Mestersvig is a small airstrip on Greenland’s desolate east coast, built in 1952 and used, among other things, to support the Sirius Patrol.
The new agreement also, for the first time, provides access to establish »unmanned military installations« outside the approved defense areas. That opens new possibilities for drone-based defense. Trump’s dream of a new missile-defense system – called Golden Dome – is also specifically mentioned in the agreement.
The Kingdom of Denmark and the United States already entered into a defense agreement in 1951 that gives the United States a large room for maneuver when it comes to establishing bases in Greenland. Experts assess that creating new military installations could easily have been handled within the old agreement.
The most significant difference between the 1951 agreement and the newly signed one is that it includes a screening mechanism intended to ensure that states, or investors from states, that are not members of NATO or the European Union cannot gain control of critical infrastructure or »particularly sensitive sectors« in Greenland.
In his speech, Trump said that, in that case, it would require the United States’ »written approval.«
As a matter of realpolitik, the United States has already had strong options to position itself as the arbiter of investments by pressuring Denmark and Greenland. But Greenlanders have previously been receptive to, among other things, Chinese investment, says Mikkel Runge Olesen.
»You have to see it as a concession. Probably less so for Denmark than for Greenland«.
Marc Jacobsen agrees.
»I see that as a concession from Greenland’s side. If we go back just a year, there was openness toward China from both Siumut and IA«, he says.
From a Greenlandic perspective, it is also worth noting that the agreement specifically names the Greenlandic government, Naalakkersuisut, as a party to the agreement. It was not in the 1951 agreement. At the same time, the agreement includes recognition of the Greenlandic people’s right to self-determination.
Mikkel Runge Olesen also points out that Denmark is obligated to ensure that Greenland becomes a member of NATO if Greenland chooses to become independent.
»That was probably where things were headed anyway, so it’s not a problem. But it’s significant in the new agreement«, he says.
Held breath
The days leading up to the signing of the agreement felt like one long, diplomatically held breath.
Even though the Prime Minister’s Office announced an »expected agreement« between the United States, Denmark and Greenland as early as Friday evening, both Danish and Greenlandic politicians and civil servants were remarkably tight-lipped and unwilling to lift the veil on the agreement’s specific contents.
There could not be too many question marks hanging over Donald Trump’s interpretation of the text. According to several sources, that had to be avoided, so Trump in no way shape or form could get cold feet before the signing ceremony.
As late as Monday, when Denmark’s top government officials landed in New York, Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen concluded that the agreement first had to be »signed«, before he could comment on its content. An unusual stance in a diplomatic setting.
Later that day, the Danish and Greenlandic governments and their senior civil servants met on the 74th floor of a skyscraper in Lower Manhattan to map out a joint game plan for the signing ceremony and the subsequent press conference.
A silent Trump on ownership
Now Donald Trump’s large, sharp signature has been set on the agreement.
In his speech to the U.N. General Assembly, he reached for entirely new words about the people of the Kingdom of Denmark.
»I look forward to working with the wonderful people of Denmark and Greenland«, Trump said.
But according to Mikkel Runge Olesen, the United States has lost political capital.
»They’ve also paid a heavy price, because Greenlandic and Danish relations with the United States are wrecked – even if everyone put on a brave face at the press conference«, he says.
The question is whether the threats against Greenland now stop. Whether the Greenlanders who have described anxiety symptoms and stomach knots can sleep soundly at night?
When the signing session was over, the Danish journalists began shouting the same question.
What about owning Greenland?
Do you still want to own Greenland?
Donald Trump did not answer. His mouth looked as if it were trying to shape words, but none came out.
Instead, he posed for photographs with America’s secretary of state, Marco Rubio, as well as Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Mette Frederiksen and Jens-Frederik Nielsen. He stood with his arms at his sides and ignored the questions, which were quickly drowned out by the sound of applause from diplomats, ministers and civil servants sitting in the front rows of the small room.
