It is a poor explanation from Socialdemokratiet’s leader, Mette Frederiksen, to cite being in government and a general drift away from the big power parties as reasons for the party’s dismal election result, said Rune Stubager, a professor and election analyst at Aarhus University.
»She is trying hard to make it sound like a perfectly natural consequence of being in government—almost a law of nature. But there are no laws of nature when it comes to how voters behave,« he said.
In Tuesday’s parliamentary election, Socialdemokratiet won 21.9 percent of the vote and 38 seats in Folketinget (the parliament). That is a drop of 5.6 percentage points and 12 seats compared with the 2022 election — and the party’s worst result since 1903. Socialdemokratiet lost ground in every constituency, and Mette Frederiksen has lost a third of her personal votes.
»It’s a huge blow. There’s no other way to put it«, Stubager says.
When Mette Frederiksen on Wednesday morning took part in the party leaders’ debate at Publicistklubben, the moderator, Martin Krasnik, asked her about Socialdemokratiet’s slide. Frederiksen pointed out that it is »the parties of power that are losing ground«:
»These are parties that take responsibility. And it won’t do if we end up in a situation where people steer clear of responsibility, compromises, and nuance«, she said, making it clear that the result did not prompt much soul-searching:
»All the parties in government have lost ground, some of us more than others. But that doesn’t mean I regret that we formed a broad government. Nor do I have any regrets about leading during Covid or other very, very difficult things. It comes at a price«.
But Rune Stubager called it »hard spin« when Frederiksen pointed to a willingness to take »responsibility« as an explanation. That is not the case, he said, if voters are happy with the decisions that have been made.
»Taking responsibility and holding power only wears you down if you choose to push through policies your voters don’t want.«
Stubager points to three factors that he says help explain Socialdemokratiet’s drubbing. The first is the decision to form a government across the center:
»Voters watched as, in 2022, they had a red majority to lean on — and they chose not to use it. Unlike the current situation, back then it was an option«.
Then there is the abolition of Store Bededag (Great Prayer Day):
»I don’t think a good many voters have forgiven that yet.«
Finally, there is economic policy, where the party has moved to the right under the SVM government.
»They’ve cut taxes for high earners, helped loosen the inheritance tax, and teamed up with two center-right parties that used to be their opponents. That was a choice they made, and I think it’s costing them—even though they’ve held the prime minister’s office,« Stubager said.
Rejects trend
During Wednesday’s debate, Mette Frederiksen also noted that traditional parties of power in other European countries are likewise losing support.
»Maybe that’s what’s happening now, too — that we’re starting to resemble other European countries, where we’ve seen exactly the same tendencies. Many parties and many small parties«, she said.
But Rune Stubager is not persuaded by the idea that an international trend, cutting across borders, can explain the old parties’ declining support and a more fragmented political landscape:
»Political systems differ, and parties behave differently. That doesn’t explain anything. I mean, why? It’s a little too convenient«, he says.
During the debate, Mette Frederiksen said the thing she regretted most was that she would now have to say goodbye to »good Social Democratic colleagues.«
»I’m really, really sad about that,« she said.
Among the Social Democrats leaving Christiansborg are the party’s health spokesman, Rasmus Horn Langhoff; its business spokesman, Mette Reismann; and its senior-citizens spokesman, Maria Duurhus.
Frederiksen herself won 41,721 personal votes—well down from 60,837 in 2022. Back then, she rode a post-pandemic wave of popularity that may have helped her, Rune Stubager said. But this term has also brought issues that have benefited her and the government, he added—not least Donald Trump’s attempt to take over Greenland:
»It has given them a stage to step onto and show what they did to hold the Danish Realm together,« the professor said.
At Wednesday’s debate, Frederiksen made clear that she believes the result still points to her staying on as prime minister.
»I don’t think this election leads to the conclusion that Danes have clearly opted for a different choice with a different candidate for prime minister,« she said.
The key word there is »clearly,« Rune Stubager said:
»There isn’t a majority that wants a specific prime minister instead of her, but there is still a majority for something else—they just can’t agree on what.«
»Her mandate has been weakened. That’s clear.«
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