Fewer children are being born in Denmark these days, resulting in the lowest fertility rate in 40 years. Yet, the population is growing faster than expected, reaching 5,999,677 residents—just a hair’s breadth of 6 million. As recently as last year, Statistics Denmark estimated we wouldn’t hit this number until 2028.
The rapid population growth despite fewer births can be attributed to two factors. Both have surprised experts.
One reason is that people are living longer—longer than experts anticipated in population forecasts. While extended longevity has garnered considerable attention in public discourse in recent years, there’s another significant, and perhaps more surprising, factor contributing to population growth:
A surge in immigration.
More foreigners are arriving in Denmark now than during the peak periods of the immigration debate. Additionally, the level of immigration exceeds what experts had projected in their forecasts.
»The population is growing much more than expected, primarily due to immigration,« says senior economist Thomas Gress from the business organization SMVdanmark, who has closely monitored the development.
»Extended longevity has roughly meant that the population hasn’t declined despite the low birth rate. Concurrently, immigration has led to an increase in the number of residents.«
Last year, 83,216 foreigners immigrated to Denmark, the second-highest number in recorded history—only surpassed by 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. And in 2023, immigration was almost as high as in 2024.
Subtracting emigration gives you the net contribution of immigration to population growth, known as net immigration. This figure has been high in recent years, standing at 32,257 last year.
That’s almost as many as during the years around 2015 when the refugee crisis dominated political discussions. It’s over double the number in 2001 when immigration policy was so prevalent that it contributed to the first purely conservative majority since 1926.
Simultaneously, the proportion of non-Western immigrants is relatively high now.
The rising immigration from non-Western countries has typically sparked major debates in the past. So why isn’t it the case this time?
»The main reason is that non-Western immigrants now come to Denmark for completely different reasons,« says Thomas Gress.
Previously, many arrived due to family reunification. Now, a larger number come to work or study.
Non-Western immigrants closing in on Danes
This shift is evident as a significantly higher percentage have found employment in recent years. In 2015, 60 percent of people with Danish origins were employed—substantially more than among non-Western immigrants, where only 36 percent had jobs. Today, the gap has narrowed significantly, with the figures standing at 64 percent for people of Danish origin and 52 percent for non-Western immigrants.
This is shown in an analysis by SMVdanmark based on new population data.
»We previously had issues with non-Western immigrants because very few of them found employment. This resulted in a deficit in public finances, especially among Syrians who arrived in 2015. But that’s not the case with the majority of immigrants coming now,« says Thomas Gress.
In 2024, foreign labor contributed a staggering DKK 361 billion, equivalent to 12 percent of Denmark’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to a report from Dansk Erhverv.
Recent years have seen significant changes in the countries non-Western immigrants come from. A smaller proportion now arrive from countries traditionally harder to integrate into the Danish job market. The proportion from the Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan, and Turkey—collectively known as Menapt—has been decreasing.
Ukrainians now make up the largest share of net immigration to Denmark, according to last year’s figures. Next are Iranians, Nepalis, and Indians.
»Ukrainians are refugees, and refugees often have weak ties to the labor market, but Ukrainians have nonetheless done relatively well,« says Thomas Gress.
Iranians largely come seeking employment as nurses. Many Indians seek jobs in the IT sector.
»And many Nepalis come to study, but they often work while they’re here, frequently in unskilled jobs,« says Thomas Gress.
The main reason most immigrants come now is for work—not due to family reunification or fleeing conflict.
»It has completely turned things on their head that most immigrants now come to work. Hence, immigration is less of a political issue, although some parties remain heavily focused on it,« says Thomas Gress.
While topics like the economy and climate have dominated recent parliamentary elections, the immigration debate is far from gone.
Debating Muslim immigration
Recently, the significant rise in immigration from Muslim countries has sparked debate. The number of immigrants from Menapt countries last year was nearly double that of 2019, according to the latest government figures.
Although immigrants from these countries now make up a smaller share of total immigration, as outlined above, their numbers have increased—simply because overall immigration is significantly higher now than before.
Dansk Folkeparti describes this in Berlingske as »a failure of immigration policy of significant proportions.« The party acknowledges that most now come for work and study but doesn’t believe it makes a substantial difference:
»Parallel societies, Islamic special demands, and social control aren’t specifically tied to whether the immigration is asylum-based or labor-based,« said immigration spokesperson Mikkel Bjørn (Dansk Folkeparti) to Berlingske last week, with support from Liberal Alliance.
Last week, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (Socialdemokratiet) made it clear that the number of foreigners, especially from North Africa and the Middle East, must be controlled. However, the Prime Minister added, according to B.T., that she distinguishes between different types of immigration:
»Most who have come in recent years have primarily come to study and work. That’s a different task.«
When immigration contributes so positively to the economy, as it currently does, it limits the debate around it, Thomas Gress assesses:
»It’s simply hard for most people to see a major societal issue in having a number of Iranian nurses come to the country.«
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