The government, and even Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (Socialdemokratiet), repeatedly emphasize that the path to achieving the 2030 climate goal of a 70 percent CO2 reduction has been laid out.
But there are such significant uncertainties tied to the government’s climate policy and its expectations that achieving the goal could be at risk of failure right before the deadline.
In a new report, the Climate Council assesses that several key measures in the government’s climate policy are vitiated with major uncertainty.
»There are uncertainties in both directions, but it could mean we don’t reach our climate goal«, says Peter Møllgaard, Chairman of the Climate Council.
This assessment comes in the so-called commentary on the latest climate projection from the Ministry of Climate, Energy, and Utilities.
If everything goes as expected, the 70 percent goal will be met, the projection shows.
But delays or challenges in just a few sectors could change this.
Uncertainty on multiple fronts
The uncertainties particularly pertain to the anticipated CO2 reductions from the transportation sector, agriculture, and the substantial focus on carbon capture and storage.
Specifically, the Climate Council points out that there is a »high risk« that the expectations for reductions from carbon capture and storage are overestimated.
This is largely due to the very rapid implementation of large reductions.
In 2028, carbon capture is expected to account for 0.2 million tons of CO2. The following year, it is supposed to increase to 2.2 million tons.
This is such a rapid increase right before the deadline that the Climate Council feels compelled to sound the alarm.
»Achieving 2.2 million tons of CO2 annually from 2029 requires significant scaling up in a relatively short period. This entails a certain risk of delays in one or more of the many stages«, the report states.
Peter Møllgaard elaborates that delays and errors here could be decisive for meeting the 2030 goal.
»We can’t be certain that the reductions will be as large as the projection assumes. And since we’re talking about many tons, it can have a significant impact on goal fulfillment if the reductions don’t come quickly enough«.
Another major climate benefit the government expects in the coming years is the rapid replacement of fossil-fuel cars with electric vehicles.
But a large part of the expected reduction stems from a change in the calculation assumptions, suggesting that the spread of electric cars is largely driven by collective behavioral effects. This is »an assumption associated with significant uncertainty«, the report states.
If market developments or political regulations change at some point in the future, price increases could dampen the reductions from electric cars.
Minister: Denmark is on the right course
The Climate Council also assesses that the agricultural policies from the green tripartite agreement bring uncertainties.
Climate, Energy, and Utilities Minister Lars Aagaard (Moderaterne) states in a written comment that Denmark is on the right course.
»We must, of course, ensure that we achieve our 2030 goal. Five years before the finish line, we are fortunately on the right track, and we are in a better position than we were last year. I agree with the Climate Council that naturally, there are still uncertainties when we are so far from the deadline. Therefore, our task now is to ensure the implementation of political agreements and closely monitor the development«, the minister states.
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