The image is still etched in my memory. Not because it’s good, but because it’s so far from the spirit on which Folkemødet is founded. A place where everyone can meet everyone and gently nudge each other on Havnegade in Allinge. And there she was, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen (Socialdemokratiet), surrounded by a living wall of up to ten uniformed officers on the outside and plainclothes security personnel on the inside.
A shove from a drunken Pole was the reason for the human wall at a time when Mette Frederiksen was facing the greatest political crisis of her career. Her unyielding stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict met with equally unyielding resistance, voters fled from the centrist government, and Socialdemokratiet suffered a humiliating defeat in the European Parliament election.
The drunken Pole had nothing to do with it, but it was he who got so close and gave the shove that sent the Prime Minister reeling. Her close allies were worried, and there was serious talk about the possibility of her leaving politics. Not for international top jobs; that ship had sailed.
Just gone.
Today, a year later, Mette Frederiksen is anything but gone.
She sits at the table with the most powerful European leaders, both inside and outside the EU, helping to forge a European response to Putin’s Russia and Trump’s USA. Now, Europe is as challenged by the fact that the USA and Russia are on good terms as we were when they were enemies during the Soviet era. Back then, the answer was a divided Europe. Now, it’s a united one.
In this game, Mette Frederiksen is central. She is now one of the most experienced members in the EU circle and has long spent her time building alliances, particularly since Trump’s threats against Greenland in January. Before that, her and Denmark’s strong involvement in the Ukraine war helped elevate Denmark to the upper echelons of European politics.
Explain a mackerel sandwich
It has been noted, I can assure you. When I was previously interviewed by international colleagues, it was about Margrethe Vestager or about the Dansk Folkeparti and the strict Danish immigration policies that shattered the image of little, cozy, and accommodating Denmark.
Now it’s Mette Frederiksen. Both in relation to Greenland, Trump – but also in regard to how in the world she, as a Social Democrat, managed to keep power when other European social democrat parties have fallen like dominoes. It partly involves the strict immigration policy. Colleagues have also become interested in Mette Frederiksen the person, and I found myself in a bit of a tricky situation trying to explain to a French radio journalist the Prime Minister’s fondness for mackerel sandwiches.
I don’t think he understood it. Honestly, neither do I.
At Christiansborg, the new security situation has cast a shadow over political life, while the government’s top leaders have focused on defense and security in an uncertain world. Just a rough estimate shows that Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen (Venstre) has made decisions involving around DKK 70 billion since we last were in Allinge – and added another 70 billion for the coming years. With the caveat that this won’t be the last bill.
Whether it will be 3, 4, or 5 percent of GDP we will spend on defense.
In that context, the future of the regions, water environment plans, and job centers can seem incredibly trivial. That’s also how the three at the top of the government—Frederiksen, Lund, and Løkke—view it. Off the record, of course.
Daily Life Awaits
Daily affairs are currently in the hands of the three second-tier leaders: Minister of Finance Nicolai Wammen (Socialdemokratiet), Minister of Economy Stephanie Lose (Venstre), and Minister of Culture Jacob Engel-Schmidt (Moderaterne). They are skilled political operators, but the opposition has noticed that it’s becoming increasingly clear that those who usually steer the political agenda are out of daily operations.
This sentiment occasionally surfaces within the government parties as well. Not as open rebellion, but as a quiet murmur. Off the record.
It can’t be voiced openly because defense and security issues dominate the agenda. This is basic political knowledge both inside and outside the government.
But it’s also basic political knowledge that elections are won at home. Right now, the government can keep it at arm’s length, and all indications suggest the election won’t be until 2026. However, there are municipal elections in November, which, besides being intriguing at the local level, could also, like the European Parliament election, send ripples through Christiansborg.
Especially for the two government parties, Socialdemokratiet and Venstre, there’s a lot at stake. They are the municipal parties in Denmark, holding 78 of the 98 mayoral posts, and already at the last election, particularly Socialdemokratiet was challenged in the major cities and large suburban municipalities around Copenhagen. And, of course, in Copenhagen itself. They had a very poor election.
Meanwhile, Venstre is feeling the chill in West Jutland, where a stronghold like Ringkøbing-Skjern isn’t as secure as it once was. Last time, in 2021, Venstre kept the mayoral post by teaming up with Socialdemokratiet. This time, both parties have new faces leading the charge, Danmarksdemokraterne are going all out with Mads Fuglede, wind turbines and solar panels are hot topics, and then there’s the perennial rebel, Kristian Andersen. He’s come close before.
The two other parties that stand out in municipal politics are Konservative and SF. Konservative had a stellar election in 2021, securing 14 mayoral posts when the Pape effect was at its peak. They are not in that position today, but they typically perform well municipally even with poor polling numbers. On the other hand, SF faced a municipal disaster when they were ousted from the Thorning government, and only now are they seriously getting back into the fight for mayoral posts.
They have their eyes on several places, Copenhagen is a given, but even a rural municipality like Vordingborg has become interesting for SF. It will be a battle against Socialdemokratiet, just as the Konservative fight Venstre in the municipalities. Both for votes and when forming coalitions.
If the world were normal, Mette Frederiksen and Troels Lund Poulsen would have spent all their time from summer until the election touring around Denmark. Sure, they do get out and they have been out, but with an EU presidency this fall and a Europe in crisis, they’re looking outward more than inward.
Knowing full well that voters don’t feel the same way. When it comes time to cast their votes on November 18th, voters are likely to focus more on schools and roads rather than the relationship between the USA and Greenland.
This is the major domestic political challenge for the government right now. The municipal election will be a preview of next year’s election, and those who make gains locally will tout their success. The losers will claim it was due to local issues.
Wait and see.
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