The waters around Greenland are filled with ships from China and Russia. They pose a threat to U.S. security, and Denmark is doing nothing about it.
That is roughly how the average American must understand the situation after Donald Trump and the U.S. government’s heightened threats that the U.S. will take control of Greenland for its own security.
When Donald Trump was asked about Greenland’s future following the U.S. attack on Venezuela, the assessment from the leader of the world’s strongest military power with the most developed and sophisticated intelligence services was prompt:
»We need Greenland…it’s so strategic right now. Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships all over the place«, said the American president’s analysis.
Yes, Greenland is indeed »surrounded« by ships.
The claim is not new, and it has also previously been flatly rejected by the Danish government. And if you check the various app-based monitoring systems, there are almost no ships in the vast waters. Here and there, a large – often Greenlandic – fishing trawler. Otherwise, emptiness.
This picture is based on the ships’ own automatic so-called AIS signals, but they do not provide the full picture. Ships can either choose to turn off AIS, or the signal is not picked up for technical reasons. Typically, warships do not emit AIS signals either.
Nevertheless, neither a Danish nor a Norwegian expert sees any signs of drastic changes in sailing patterns.
Fewer spy trawlers
Commander Johannes Riber from the Center for Arctic Security Studies at the Royal Danish Defence College answers briefly and precisely »no« when asked whether Russian and Chinese ships swarm around Greenland.
»I think you have to ask the Americans. They must be the ones who have the data on which they base their claim. I am not aware of such data«.
Instead, Johannes Riber points out that the Russian presence has likely decreased after Greenland terminated a fishing agreement with Russia over a year ago. This agreement gave Russian trawlers access to fish in Greenland’s economic zone. And Russian trawlers have repeatedly been revealed as so-called spy ships that also serve military purposes.
China has no fishing agreements in the Arctic, and Chinese ships are a rare sight in the area. In other words, the countries’ ship traffic near Greenland has likely decreased today.
Regarding the Russian fleet, Johannes Riber explains:
»They sail there – they still do, and they have the right to. But the Russian fleet is old, and some of their ships cannot sail – it is not that large«.
It is different with the large Russian strategic nuclear submarines, which according to NATO’s assessment have increased activity over the past decade.
Submarine activity is difficult to monitor, but the U.S. has its own submarines in the area, and there is a kind of cat-and-mouse game where submarines try to detect each other. From the air, American, British, and Norwegian special aircraft also monitor activities below the sea surface.
Norway also has a particular interest in monitoring ship traffic in the area around Greenland, Svalbard, and the island of Jan Mayen, where Norway has a small military base.
But Norway is not alarmed either. Research Director Andreas Østhagen from the Fridtjof Nansen Institute in Oslo does not see increased ship traffic in the area:
»There is simply no perception that there is a significant Chinese or Russian ship traffic near Greenland«.
Andreas Østhagen points out that there must be entirely different reasons why Donald Trump »throws these claims out«:
»It seems more like a result of this ’Donroe Doctrine’ (a rewrite of the Monroe Doctrine from 1823, ed.). Of Donald Trump’s own ambitions to make America great again by gaining control of neighboring areas«.
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