From threats of military takeover to a full-blown trade war.
This is how the conflict between Denmark and Greenland on one side and the United States on the other has unfolded. The use of the military to take over Greenland is moving further down the agenda and is now also rejected by Mike Johnson, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives and a staunch Trump loyalist.
But at the same time, Trump is launching a full-scale trade war. On Saturday, Trump issued his war declaration in a post on Truth Social: He is imposing new tariffs on several European nations, »until an agreement is reached on the complete and total purchase of Greenland«, as he writes.
Wet gunpowder
Several American media outlets note that the gunpowder in Trump’s trade war cannons can quickly become wet. The new threat comes as everyone in the U.S. is eagerly awaiting the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump’s use of the emergency law, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, to impose tariffs against several countries over the past year. The legal argument is that only Congress can set tariffs.
If the court rules against Trump, he risks not only having to repay the enormous amount the U.S. has earned from the tariffs. He will also find it difficult to impose the kind of tariffs he has just announced more of.
Thus, the Trump administration will have to find other methods – not just for the new tariffs but also for those already in effect. This will require a majority in Congress, and Trump cannot be sure he will get it. In addition to a united block of Democrats who will vote against, several Republicans are also expected to vote against the tariffs in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Moreover, it will take time to get tariffs through the legislative process.
So if the Supreme Court ruling goes against Trump, he cannot use punitive tariffs as he has done so far and is now trying to do in connection with Greenland: As a loaded gun on the negotiating table, which he can threaten to fire at will.
Legal experts are cautious about predicting the Supreme Court’s ruling because the majority of justices are conservative. But based on the preliminary signals, it is highly likely that the ruling will go against Trump, as has been the case in lower courts.
Defeat in sight
Even if Trump wins in the Supreme Court, his trade war declaration is a huge gamble. With this announcement, he has expanded the front, so it is not just Denmark and Greenland he is fighting against. No, now it is also Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland, who are all NATO members.
The countries’ offense is solely that they have shown solidarity with Denmark in its refusal to comply with Trump’s demands. If these nations do not yield, he added, the rate will rise to 25 percent on June 1.
Europe’s leaders reacted with collective outrage on Saturday, and so did politicians in Washington – including several of Trump’s own party members.
Moreover, the announcement of new tariffs casts serious doubt on the trade agreement Trump has already made with the EU. The timing is unfortunate for Trump and the U.S. The trend among several EU countries is the same as observed in Denmark and Greenland. At the beginning of his presidency, there was an attempt to curry favor with Trump and avoid conflicts. But since that has not worked, there is now resistance. Still diplomatic and cautious, but with clear opposition.
The preliminary reactions from the countries now subject to extra tariffs suggest that Trump will face clear opposition. He also risks that the tariff agreement he has already made with the EU will not be ratified by the European Parliament – and that the EU will adopt tariffs targeting American goods.
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a think tank in Brussels, told The New York Times that the new tariffs are likely to kill the 15 percent tariff deal that the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, made last year.
»It means the end of the deal, and we are in a full-blown trade war. (...) Either we fight a trade war, or we are in a real war«, he says.
Trump is also increasing the already evident trend: The EU and the rest of the world prefer to trade with other countries rather than the U.S.
Hurting Americans
In the trade war that Trump is now escalating, it should also be noted that he is under pressure at home. There is growing criticism both within and outside the Republican Party that he is focusing too much on foreign policy instead of what is most important to American voters: food prices.
Since tariffs are typically paid by importers, not the products’ country of origin, the costs are often passed on to American consumers. Therefore, increased tariffs can easily become a self-inflicted wound for Trump. Especially with a midterm election in less than 11 months.
Looking at American media on Saturday, one image is repeated: The many demonstrators in front of the American consulate in Nuuk. Even the Trump-friendly TV station Fox News is focusing on it. Greenland does not look like a winning issue for Trump.
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