If Denmark agreed to sell Greenland to Donald Trump, it could net anywhere from $12.5 billion to $2.8 trillion—roughly DKK 80 billion to DKK 18 trillion.
These are two vastly different estimates of a potential purchase price proposed by American economists after the U.S. president expressed his desire to make Greenland American. Large sums that have also sparked debate in Denmark about whether the country should accept such an offer.
Experts say there are plenty of problems with that debate—and not just because Greenland and Denmark have flatly rejected Trump’s demand or because the idea of buying a nation has sparked moral outrage.
There’s also a major roadblock: such a deal wouldn’t be legal—even if Denmark were on board.
Legally, the U.S. can’t buy Greenland from Denmark, says Miriam Cullen, an associate professor of international law at the University of Copenhagen who specializes in Greenland.
The 2009 Greenland Self-Government Act, along with established principles of international law, means the Greenlandic people have the right to decide their own future. Denmark therefore cannot transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States without Greenland’s consent, Cullen explains.
But what if, hypothetically, Greenland chose to leave the Danish Realm in favor of a deal with the U.S.?
In that case, Denmark would no longer have influence in Greenland – and if Greenland then decided to offer to become part of the U.S., it could happen through an American purchase, »where Greenland would obviously receive the money«, said Frederik Harhoff, professor emeritus of international law at the University of Southern Denmark, to TjekDet earlier this month.
In this very hypothetical scenario, Denmark would end up receiving no American money, because Greenland could only become part of the U.S. after deciding to leave the Danish realm.
Rarely Mentioned Obstacles
Obstacles like these are rarely mentioned when the president’s demand for Greenland is debated in the U.S. In The New York Times, economist David Barker calculated a price for Greenland by referencing what the U.S. paid Denmark for the Virgin Islands in 1917 or what the U.S. paid Russia for Alaska in 1867.
After adjusting the amounts for the economic growth that has occurred in the U.S. and Denmark since then, Barker concludes that the U.S. should pay somewhere between $12.5 billion and $77 billion for Greenland, equivalent to between 80 and 500 billion kroner.
If Denmark received the money, it could invest it and get a return of DKK 6-40 billion annually, which could be used for everything from highways and metros to hospitals and universities, argued author Ryan Smith in an op-ed in Politiken earlier this month, urging Danish politicians to sell Greenland.
Others have estimated the price of Greenland much higher. The conservative American think tank American Action Forum bases its estimate on the expected value of minerals in Greenland’s underground. This results in an estimated purchase price of $186 billion. And when considering the value of Greenland’s strategic location, the estimate rises to nearly $2.8 trillion.
Amounts equivalent to DKK 1.18 trillion and nearly DKK 18 trillion, respectively.
However, these estimates do not include an assessment of whether it is actually feasible according to current laws and agreements, which are significantly different from when the U.S. bought Alaska and the Danish West Indies, now known as the U.S. Virgin Islands.
American Action Forum states that the think tank is not familiar with the internal process in Denmark or Greenland regarding a sale to the U.S. The price estimate is more of a rough economic exercise than an assessment of the legality of buying Greenland, which is outside the think tank’s expertise, it said in an email to Politiken.
Illegal Doesn’t Mean Impossible
Another question is whether anyone would actually stick to the laws and agreements on Greenland. When the U.S. grabbed Venezuela’s president and flew him to the States, critics called it a breach of international law—and Washington didn’t hesitate.
In other words, the fact that buying Greenland would not be legal does not mean it would be impossible.
Regardless, the way the issue is being debated is itself deeply concerning, according to Miriam Cullen.
»It is alarming that we talk about people and sovereignty as something that can be traded. Imagine if we talked about whether Denmark could sell Funen, or if the EU could sell Denmark – it would be perceived as insane. But it seems different when someone talks about selling Greenland, and that is problematic«, says Miriam Cullen.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. This story is far from over.
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