One of the genuinely big questions in Danish politics right now is this: How long can Lars Løkke Rasmussen keep going without »simply« stepping in as the fourth member of an S-SF-R-M government?
A cautious but fairly clear-eyed answer is that he can keep it up for a very long time — and probably through several more rounds with the King. For the simple reason that he has to. If the negotiations now underway at Mette Frederiksen’s (S) office, with her acting as royal informateur, were to end in a center-left government, it would be with Moderaterne as the bluest party, and that is not a position Løkke will step into until it is carved in stone that Venstre and Konservative cannot be budged.
Right now nothing has been set in stone, even if things may be heading that way. Still, you can’t completely rule out a very broad centrist coalition—SVM plus Radikale and Konservative—even though the idea has little momentum at the moment. On the plus side, it would have a comfortable majority; on the minus side, both the Social Democrats and Venstre are more than a little uneasy about the model.
Almost as uneasy as Løkke is about an S–SF–R–M setup.
Long way to Moderaterne’s demands
Even though the parties to the left of Socialdemokratiet—S, SF, Alternativet and especially Enhedslisten—have been strikingly accommodating, stressing that there is no red majority and that they therefore need to tone down their rhetoric.
Still, there’s a long way to go to meet Moderaterne’s demands for reforms and a bigger labour supply—demands that, unsurprisingly, haven’t softened after an election that gave Løkke the decisive seats. Nor has the gap between Moderaterne and Socialdemokratiet narrowed on economic policy. Back in the autumn (off the record, of course) Løkke and Mette Frederiksen sounded more aligned on a major economic plan, but at the time Venstre was the one holding back, still dreaming of a blue government.
During the campaign, when Socialdemokratiet moved sharply left, Frederiksen’s camp expected that if talks ended in a centre-left government with Løkke as the key player, he would show up in his bluest guise. As one Social Democrat put it off the record: »Løkke will slam the blue playbook on the table—and it’s a big one.«
Down from the lamppost
That is history now. The voters have spoken and dealt both Socialdemokratiet and Venstre a solid blow, one that has reduced both parties’ appetite for political experiments. Right now, a prominent analysis in both parties is that it is the SVM government that cost them nearly nine percentage points combined — not their respective campaigns. That particular analysis is bad news for Løkke and the center project he has rebuilt himself around, and it therefore looks difficult as he tries to push Mette Frederiksen and Troels Lund down from the lampposts, as Løkke calls it.
If that were to happen, it will of course be delayed by the eye operation Troels Lund Poulsen underwent on an emergency basis Saturday evening, which has sidelined him for the coming weeks.
But there are many other reasons it is more than difficult to make it happen.
During the campaign, it was obvious to everyone just how bitter Troels Lund Poulsen is with Mette Frederiksen. And yes, Venstre’s leadership is somewhat annoyed by the criticism their Copenhagen figure Jan E. Jørgensen has aimed at Socialdemokratiet, calling them cynical and accusing them of deliberately going after Venstre and its ties to agriculture. According to several sources, that’s just sour grapes—there’s rarely much sympathy for power parties that lose power, and that goes for Venstre too. That’s the price you pay.
Still, Jan E.’s depiction of Socialdemokratiet is echoed in other parts of Venstre, and as a long-time observer of the two parties and their power struggles, you can hardly call it new. Venstre has said the same thing campaign after campaign—except in the years when they’ve mixed it up by warning themselves and everyone else in advance about the Social Democratic election machine.
S pressured by the red opposition
This time, however, the truth is that it was not Socialdemokratiet that led the charge on drinking water during the campaign. Quite the opposite. They were pushed by the red opposition and were simply quicker, more cynical and decidedly less focused on details than Venstre when they jumped on board.
The same goes for the pigs, which did not exactly grow up in Socialdemokratiet’s backyard either. But S jumped on it, and Mette Frederiksen used it quite deliberately in her duels with Troels Lund Poulsen. She would almost as an aside slip in the words »pigs«, »agriculture« and »drinking water«, even when she was talking about something entirely different.
If the two are to do anything together again, it will take more than Løkke trying to soften them up. But the attempt has not been abandoned yet.
Both Lund and Løkke are angry
It will take finesse from Løkke, and his pressure is aimed as much at Mette Frederiksen as at Troels Lund. Word is that in Løkke’s camp they are toying with the idea of trying to pressure Mette Frederiksen into reaching out — very publicly, that is. It is not confirmed and has in no way been carried out yet. But it underscores that it is not only Troels Lund who is angry with Mette Frederiksen. Løkke is very much so as well, and in his eyes she has, since calling the election, thrown everything SVM stood for overboard in an attempt to give S a good result.
It didn’t work out. Instead, they dropped by 5.6 percentage points.
On Tuesday, however, Mette Frederiksen did something that may loosen things up a bit in the negotiations. In effect, she shelved the campaign promises — the wealth tax, the small independent school and Arne++ — all of which will have to be thoroughly reworked before a pension reform ever sees the light of day. What remains untouchable for S is the strict immigration policy and a state ban on pesticides to protect drinking water. On the latter there is a comfortable majority, so it will not trip up one government constellation or another.
That is the first opening. And it points in Løkke’s direction.
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